Having studied the Israeli F-16s actions, it has become apparent that the IL-20 wasn’t collateral damage. It was the intended target. Israel waited until the Ilushyn was airborne and then entered the area, warned the Russians about an attack, and waited until it started to return to base. As it approached for landing, they fired on a target in Latakia and as soon as it got in position, one Israeli F-16 closed with it and spoofed the Syrian defenses into believing a massive attack was inbound. They fired at the F-16s which then jammed the Syrians causing the F-16s to disappear from the Syrian acquisition radar. At least one S-200 then the Ilushyn because it was all it could see in the air, and the rest continued out to sea where they were engaged by the French Frigate. It has been established that the frigate fired air defense missiles and did not attack Syria. The S-200s were the only things approaching them and they defended themselves from what THEY thought was an attack. It initially seemed too complicated to me that Israel might have been setting France up to shoot at Syria in response to what they thought was an attack on them, but the coincidences pile up until they no longer look like coincidences.
(1) The Syrian S-200 site locations were known and the Israelis knew they could spoof them
(2) The Frigate was basically holding on station in an almost fixed position
(3) The path of the Il-20 was known. Israel had watched it take off and land at Khmeimim many times and it had to land on the same runway using the same pattern every time.
(4) the ONLY variable was the F-16s. All they had to do was get the timing right. Israel is known for executing plans like that with split second timing. Israel waited until AFTER the IL-20 was airborne to notify the Russians of their attack which gave Russia less than a minute of warning. Israel also told Russia they were going up north so the Russians wouldn’t divert the Ilushyn. Then they simply waited for another minute or two until the IL-20 was returning to base and executed their attack. That shootdown was not accidental. Russia grasped the fact immediately upon studying the data.
Before the Il-20 shutdown, Russia stated that their air defense systems had been completely integrated with Syrias. That wasn’t true and Israeli knew it. The S-300 systems which are arriving in Syria now WILL be integrated into the Russian system but both Israel and the US can beat them. Iran has had operational S-300s for several years and their operators are well trained. Israel (and the US) are afraid that Syria will allow Iranian operators to man Syria’s new S-300s – but as long as the systems are integrated, Russia may be able to maintain command and control. In either case, both Israel and the US will now target Russian air defenses long with those of Syria. The west continues to claim that Russia is escalating, but all they are escalating is Syria’s air defense. Russia claims that the new systems are S-300s. I think they have to be very advanced S-300s or maybe S-400s if Russia wants to beat Israel at it’s own game.
US intelligence analysts expected Russia to bring in S-300s after Turkey shot down the Russian jet in 2015 but they didn’t in order to appease Israel…who then backstabbed them. Russia is very slow to anger, but it is beginning to realize that the west never stopped fighting the Cold War and still intends to take Russia out to prevent it from ever becoming a global power. It is proceeding in several areas. We are pushing Japan to recover the northern islands it lost to Russia during WW2 so we can put missiles there. We will put offensive missiles in Poland and Norway, as well as Georgia pretty soon. The US believes it can beat Russian S-72s on the ground as long as we can maintain air superiority over the battlefield. I am not talking about in Syria, I am talking about in Russia. Failing that, we almost certainly have plans to starve Russia by introducing various crop blights, particularly wheat. Russia still may not understand that we intend to win any way we can and that international agreements not to use nuclear, biological or chemical weapons mean nothing to us. We are providing them to the White Helmet terrorists in Idlib right now and we have biological facilities in Georgia.
The US ‘trade war’ with China is designed to be ongoing. It is expected to last until at least 2049 when the BRI is supposed to be completed, unless the economy of either China or the US collapses before then. The US and China both expect to engage in warfare over Taiwan and the South China Sea and have agreed to prevent it from going global or nuclear. We’ll see.
We believe we can starve China by blockading the South China Sea but the days of invulnerable Fast Carrier Attack Groups is passing. I’ll cover this in more detail later.