Friday, 11:300 Ana – Lava – Ebola

ANA Pushed past the magical number and is now a Cat1 hurricane!  But we don’t care – she can’t hit the Big Island. Here is a current satellite photo: http://wxug.us/1l86i     Ana is becoming more disorganized. She will bring some rain, heavy at times, to Hawaii. There is no possibility of Hurricane or T/S conditions […]

Lava: What if Kilauea actually erupted?

First, it’s a million to one… or a billion to one for it to feed lava on the CURRENT flow path in any great quantity.  It would run down the hill to Seaview and Kalapana. But let’s say it erupted enough to keep flowing for a couple of years but not enough to go over […]

Lava update, Sunday 11:00

The threads of lava moving toward Cemetary Road have almost stopped. The other finger, now the most active one, has left the steepest descent and is falling off to the north – which might put it right back on my originally predicted track. If I overlay a picture and topo in that direction, the path […]

Lava update, Saturday, 07:00 and 19:15 Updated 19:30

Update. If the lava re-starts and crosses either over or under 130, it will probably do so here: http://maps.google.com/?ll=19.499363,-154.949466&spn=0.006442,0.009645&t=h&z=17 -update ends 07:00 The picture is from yesterday. The front is now about 600 feet wide, but advancing slowly if at all. 19:00 Chopper 1 made a run to the flow this afternoon. The HVO site […]

Lava update, Friday, 19:30

The current map is time-stamped 10:30. They say it’s still advancing…now at a rate of about 7 feet an hour but that’s hard to see from the map, which is here: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-148.jpg The last update from HVO was just before 18:00 this evening and they aren’t scheduled to make another overflight until Monday – so […]

Lava prediction, Thursday, 10:30 – Updated 19:00

Update: HVO isn’t updating the flow data twice a day anymore, partly because the helicopter only flies once a day now. However there are people on-site, probably being paid serious overtime to watch it. I don’t watch Tv, so I don’t know whether it got any airtime. We’ll see tomorrow morning how much it moved […]

Lava prediction, Wednesday, 19:37

Not surprisingly, the EXACT lava path prediction I posted a few days ago is now being used by HVO.  Feel free to look back and find it.  I deleted the picture – it was too big. Here is the link: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-147.jpg   Kobani, Syria. Kobani is a Syrian Kurdish city near the Turkish border. The […]

Lava report, Monday.

06:58:  Chopper 1 is returning from the morning lava recon.  Here is a map here updated as of last evening: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-144.jpg The morning report says the lava has advanced ~360 feet since yesterday.  I assume that means from 12:15 pm yesterday which is the time indicated on the 6 October flow map but that’s not […]

Evening Lava report, Monday, 19:00

Chopper 1 was there three times today.  The last time for over an hour, so the flow must have started a fire.  When I looked, there were pictures: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/multimedia/uploads/multimediaFile-832.jpg You can click and enlarge them.  The thermal photo is pretty interesting.  The black spot near the top of it is where the flow stopped last […]