First a brief history of the world today and a synopsis:
(1) Will Russia remain a new super power, or even survive as a country? Yes.
(2) Will Ukraine? Only as part of Russia. The US and EU are tired of playing ‘Game of Thrones’ in Ukraine.
(3) Will Syria? Yes, in some form. Probably with Assad leading it. If it doesn’t, the tinderbox that is the middle east will set off a catastrophe the world cannot yet imagine.
(4) Will Turkey? Not with Erdogan.
(5) Will the United States? Portugal used to be the dominant world power. The US will fade into the third world if it doesn’t destroy mankind first.
It is clear that Ukraine, at the direct orders of the US and NATO, is going to continue killing ethnic Russians in the breakaway regions as long as they can. Winning the land back isn’t part of the plan. Causing Russia as much trouble and expense as possible taking care of the people is the entire plan – along with accusing Russia of aggression on a daily basis. If required, Ukraine can be ordered by it’s US masters to attack Crimea directly – but that constitutes an attack on Russia – not one of the autonomous regions – and would require that Russia defend its borders.
The strategic plan is different. It’s to bankrupt Russia and drop it back into third world status so that it can be controlled by the Rothschild central bank. So far that plan is holding, but it can’t for much longer. The people in the republics have declared their loyalty to Russia and if Russia won’t step in, they have vowed to create their own Republic exclusive of Ukraine and Russia too, if necessary. It is to Russia’s shame that it continues to try to negotiate international agreements with enemies who have no intention of keeping their word and whose only purpose is to destroy the RF. But it’s just not powerful enough yet to take them on. Even so, every Russian politeness is seen in the west as weakness.
Russia does understand the dynamics clearly and is most certainly trying to buy time – they say until their ‘western partners’ come to their senses – but in reality it’s the time required to get the country on a war footing. They don’t have much of it left. The west understands that it must crush Russia before Russia can adequately defend itself.
Let me say this clearly: The west HAS pushed Russia into an economic war and WILL push them into a shooting war. Do not be deceived. Russia isn’t.
This plan becomes completely obvious when Russia sent assistance to Syria after the US ‘coalition’ SAID it was attacking ISIS, but in reality, the US created and is arming and funding ISIS. US politicians admit it on a daily basis – and still accuse Russia of being the aggressor.
That was the point of Turkey ambushing a Russian aircraft within the Syrian border at the orders of the US. Turkey buys millions of gallons of stolen Syrian oil from ISIS and has every reason to protect ISIS – and of course, Erdogan is rabid about killing Kurds – all of them. The first reporter who provided proof was Serena Shin – and Erdogan had her murdered. I state this as a fact.
But first, do not be fooled about the demands that ASSAD must go. NO ONE cares whether Assad goes or stays, just as no one cared if Gaddafi went or stayed, or Saddam. The point has always been that you Arabs (and Russians…and Chinese…) must learn to do what the west tells you – if you don’t, we will demonize your leaders and destroy your countries. We will employ paid mercenaries and arm and support them. And after your country is gone. we’ll divide up the oil and make people spend petrodollars to buy it.
And we’ll divide up your land. Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and the northern half of Iraq are designated to be ‘Greater Israel’. All of those Arab countries will simply disappear. They are already disappearing. Turkey controls the north of Iraq so it can invade Syria from the east while it’s ISIS mercenaries attack from the north and south. Kurdistan will be stillborn.
Turkey will kill all of the Kurds and get Cyprus, maybe Greece too, and a lot more stolen oil for their part. Erdogan will have his Caliphate – for a while.
While that is happening, ISIS will destroy Syria, Lebanon and Jordan – but will somehow stop at Israel. Then any Palestinians remaining can leave and join the ISIS mercenaries in invading the EU through Turkey – and doing as much damage to Russia and China as possible, creating major problems in those countries as well.
I’m just tipping the iceberg here. Every country in the world has been promised a piece of the pie, and that promise is in the form of almost 1,000 US military bases in all of these countries which say: You can have some money, and service our bases, or you can have a civil war and the survivors can service our bases.
All of the provocative moves by Turkey are reciprocated by similar moves in Ukraine. The connection is not debatable. The strategy is that the US is threatening Russia with NATO wars on at least two fronts, and possibly as many as four at once, and Russia probably can’t win a scenario like that.
Turkey can close the Bosphorus, illegally, and Cyprus can close their airports emergency traffic (illegally). The US can blockade the Black Sea (illegally) and send serious weaponry and men to fight in Ukraine (illegally). The UN can blockade the Russian ships in Syrian ports (illegally) and then fight a war of attrition.
But “illegally’ means nothing. The US recognizes no national or international law except the interests of the United States. People who hope ‘international law’ will help are deluded.
Further, it has been the OFFICIAL US policy for at least 25 years to win a nuclear war by striking ANY ENEMY first without warning. WE WILL SHOOT NUKES FIRST. IT IS OUR NATIONAL POLICY.
Who pulled unilaterally out of the strategic arms limitation agreements? The US. They told everyone “we are not going to follow any rules for limiting nuclear weapons, and we are going to shoot our nukes first, without warning whenever we think we can win – or even if we think we might lose.”
Will we? Absolutely. Because the ONLY way to eliminate the national debt is to make the economies we owe that money to disappear and then start loaning money to those nations to rebuild – so they are now in OUR debt.
Third grade math, given the right numbers, shows that the US population of 325 million people, half of whom live check to check and most of whom have no savings; and 25% of which have no steady job – in a country that has outsourced all its industry and most of its manufacturing – cannot support an additional $1 TRILLION dollars of debt a year. It cannot pay the interest on the debt it had ten years ago – it has no effective corporate tax base. It is making money by printing it on the skin of the citizens, and using their blood for ink. The United States cannot support itself. It cannot support the armed forces of all the NATO countries (which only joined for the free goodies), and it cannot support a thousand military bases around the world.
ON THE 16th of DECEMBER – in four days – the FED is going to raise the interest rate by maybe 25 basis points. They have to maintain the ridiculous fiction that the economy improving and everyone is doing just fine. But by doing that they are pulling out the last stop and the US economy will have to fail during 2016.
What’s coming is a global money crunch. You are going to be told its YOUR fault for making bad financial decisions. Your homes and bank accounts are going to have to be taken away so professionals can make decisions for you. You aren’t responsible enough to own firearms, so only police can have them. You can’t decide what’s best for you, so the news will tell you what the requirements are. You may hunt for rabbits in designated areas if you have a bow and some arrows – or rats and mice in the inner cities.
But of course, before that happens, we have to beat those Russian invaders in a war and after them China, and we have to take out Assad so Israel has Lebensraum. Except it won’t happen. The US has run itself into exactly the bankruptcy it ran Russia into in 1990 and now the tables have turned.
Russia need do nothing – in fact, it MUST do nothing. It cannot get involved in an overt military engagement with the US until l the US economy tanks. At that point, no one will give a damn for Ukraine or Syria and will want to know where the food is.
Here’s what I see happening in 2016 and I think we can all see it. The US funded minority Nazis in Ukraine will be wiped out along with the US funded ISIS mercenaries in the middle east; a few million of them will go to the EU and fuck it up beyond comprehension.
This will happen because the US government is too big to function and too broke to buy any more friends. It has too many masters and the various bosses don’t listen to the others – or the President – which is good most of the time.. That’s a death knell if there ever was one for the US.
What does Russia have to do to survive? Keep doing something while pretending to do nothing – but it must defend it’s military forces instantly and convincingly. If it does, the rest of NATO will begin infighting because they are ALL broke and cannot fund a war.
I look forward to Russian advisers and equipment in Slavyingrad starting this weekend – which is fanciful – but soon, at any rate. Low key, but not hiding. They must make the Ukraine/US give up the idea of capturing Crimea and doing any more serious damage, or they can expect Russian troops in Kiev. If Kiev stupidly continues to believe that the US and the EU are going to ride in like they did in Iraq and spend two Trillion dollars on that disaster of a nation, they are wrong. Ukraine won’t be prosperous again until it is part of Russia again. Everyone knows that’s a fact.
Russia may have to be a BIT more circumspect in Syria – but not much. If another Russian plane or ship is sniped, there will be some instant changes in the Central Committee. Some of them will retire due to health and never be seen again. Putin has tried and tried not to have to do that because it will reek of Stalin’s purges.
This morning I have been reading Twitter posts from @lubalas, with whom I usually agree, and some re-posts from the Saker: http://thesaker.is/russia-in-an-invisible-war/
With whom I do and don’t agree, but I note that he burst on the scene too quickly and with too many resources to be a random blogger. Still the article I linked is interesting.
We bloggers and opinion peddlers don’t know the reality – we are trying to guess at it by making observations, and that is a notoriously bad strategy – but it’s all we have. No government is going to tell the truth about its strategic plans. But we can help ourselves by our knowledge. For instance, while Russia doesn’t telegraph their blows, they know that people can see for themselves – so Putin and Lavrov are either honest or couch their words in diplo-speak. They don’t lie.
The United states on the other hand has turned into a politically correct fairyland. EVERY public official flatly lies about everything, period. If Obama or Kerry or the State Department or the Pentagon said it, you KNOW it isn’t true; or at least I know it isn’t true. No one in the world who goose-steps with the US is telling the truth, and they all know it.