Consequences of the US unilaterally pulling out of the Iranian nuclear deal.

We knew the US was going to pull out.  If there was any question, that ended after Israel bombed Iranian facilities in Syria and Iran threatened Israel with a missile attack if it happened again. If Trumps mind wasn’t made up before, that did it.

Domestically, the JCPOA deal was Obama’s only foreign policy success – reason enough to blow it up. But internationally there are problems. The US reneged on a deal it made, and which was approved by the UN, after eleven detailed reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 2016 which have stated consistently that Iran was in compliance with their part of the bargain. That means the US is in violation of the terms of the bargain – we didn’t keep our word.  And THAT makes it is obvious to the world that the US can’t be trusted and that the treaties we sign are only as binding as any current administration wants them to be.  Basically it means that after the other party does what they agreed to do and can’t go back – for instance after verifiably and permanently dismantling their nuclear weapons program, the US can and will back stab them by reverting to whatever policies caused them to agree to the deal in the first place.  We did EXACTLY the same thing to Libya and Iraq and before that to Russia at the end of the cold war.

So a couple of things are going to happen. When Trump gets to the summit with Kim, there isn’t going to be any deal for the DPRK to drop their nuclear weapons program. Furthermore, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are going to start looking hard at obtaining nukes because they can no longer trust the US to honor its commitments to protect them. We can say we will, and sign agreements, but they aren’t binding because we discard them at will.  Who will make us keep our word?  No one.  Superpowers make their own rules.  The problem becomes that if we don’t have to keep our word, no one else has to either and tha’t basically he end of international law. Treaties and binding agreements no longer matter – only military might matters. Unfortunately, that’s the way the world has always worked.  But it’s a bad idea in a nuclear world.

In fact, it’s a bad idea at any scale.  Agreements only work if both parties trust each other. We told the American Indians they could have their own lands and we’d leave them alone.  We signed a treaty. That lasted until someone found gold on their land.  Then we killed them for it. They didn’t even want the gold.  They just wanted to be left in peace on their own lands. We got the gold.  They lost their land and their lives.

Except…nothing is ever as it seems to be in politics.  When Hillary Clinton started the ‘Russiagate’ nonsense to try and destroy Trump’s credibility, it forced him to push Russia away, impose sanctions, and not attempt the rapprochement with Russia that he (and most rational people) wanted and still want. While Israel was retaliating against the Irananian missile attack against them on the Golan Heights*, Netanyahu was marching in Russia’s 73rd annual Victory Parade and its March of the Immortals with Putin.  So it’s pretty clear that the tide is turning and that the US and Russia are going to get closer after all as soon as Hillary’s evil influence wanes a bit more.

There are several deeper reasons, too.  Hezbollah runs Lebanon and Iran supports Hezbollah. Israel needs to get rid of Hezbollah, permanently occupy Lebanon, and push Iran (but not Russia) out of Syria to secure it’s borders. The US wants to get rid of Assad and so does Turkey, which has permanently occupied the north of Syria and will eventually push its border to the Euphrates river. Russia has agreed to this and will keep it’s presence in Syria .

*The Golan Heights was Syrian territory until Syria and Egypt attacked Israel in 1973.

Rant begins here:

My neighbors and I are pretty well armed and so we are secure in our property and polite when we meet. Go to Alaska, or Plano Texas, or anywhere that people are well and legally armed and you will find that crime rates are very low. Most victims of crime depend on the government to protect them, not on themselves. They choose to abrogate their personal responsibility – for security; for food security; for everything.  If the government doesn’t give it to them they are lost.  They can’t quite grasp that the  government can only give them things by taking them from someone else in the form of taxes or by force from other nations in the form of economic sanctions backed by a threat of war – or by war itself.

At the local scale, people are smart enough to know that if we kill each other, we both lose.  That lesson has always been lost on governments which don’t die themselves.  They send us out to die for them.

Almost NO ONE in any metropolitan area knows where their food, power, gas or water comes from,  where their sewage goes, or how to live for more than a day if all of that isn’t provided for them; God forbid their cellphone stops working or the Internet goes off.  Countries are like that after a fashion. Like my neighbors and me, they depend on each other to trade for things they want. In my case it’s food and vegetables and the occasional helping hand. For countries it’s commodities like food,  oil, raw materials and manufactured goods but the concept is the same as long as no one becomes covetous or greedy…and everyone keeps their word.

When they don’t, they have to revert to threats or force which only works as long as you can scare everyone individually to keep them from banding together.  If you create too many enemies all at once they will get together and you can’t beat all of them. The US has pushed Russia and China together and is pushing all the BRICS countries except India to join them in addition to Venezuela, North Korea and a bunch of others.  Japan is on the wire as well as the Philippines, Turkey, Afghanistan, Mexico and so forth.  Smaller countries align with whoever will trade with them without imposing huge tariffs and won’t destroy them militarily. It used to be us and it might still be, but not much longer. It has only been ~250 years since England, Spain, France and the Native Americans owned North America – less than that since Mexico owned California and most of Texas and Arizona.  Things change quickly.

 

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