On the Turkish incursion into Syria

Erdogan’s push into Syria has Ottoman empire coloration, but it is probably just as much an effort to develop a patriotic following for his personal brand rather than for the protection of the state of Turkey after the Stalinist-type purge which lopped the head off of the military. Unfortunately, it isn’t proving to be an effective tactic. The Turkish population doesn’t seem to consider the Kurds to be the potential invaders Erdogan says they are, so the Turkish forces are performing half-heartedly. Erdogan’s military adventure and threats of general war look hollow to all concerned, including the Syrian, Iranian and Greek governments and will generate more and more push-back.

As always, the US will try to milk any conflict to its own end of maintaining Turkey as a blocking force against Russia while every other country and faction plays for their own ends. But the original US plan to use Turkey to support a US orchestrated regime change in Syria looks like an outdated scenario. The US can kindle brush fires all over the world but it cannot keep supplying fuel forever to keep them burning. Controlling middle east oil and gas production while containing Russia and China and other real or imagined challenges at the cost of infrastructure will, combined with political infighting, decreasing resources and overpopulation, eventually (by 2100) prove too great a strain on any government to maintain itself and support its national interests purely through trade and military might.

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