There are only two possible interactions between living things.

Negotiation and force. This applies at every point of contact between two or more living things at all levels – personal to international – from plants to viruses to humans and beyond (if there are extraterrestrials).

Passing by and pretending the other doesn’t exist is an unspoken, but negotiated peace.  It may not happen that way next time. 

Peace, happiness and every other good thing depends upon some sort of symbiotic (negotiated) relationship in which each party has something the other wants or needs.  As long as both sides agree to terms for trade and live by those terms, there is never a problem.

If one side breaks the agreement and the trade is no longer beneficial to both parties equally, they must instantly negotiate a settlement or try to force the other to obey. An unfair trade rule can never continue long, so there is divorce, war, or antibiotics that one side forces upon the other to try and win.

But as soon as one ‘wins’, the system of negotiation is broken. All trust is gone; the symbiosis has evaporated. One side will be broken, consumed, removed as a negotiating partner or killed.

That may mean a tree, a person, a society, a species, a nation, or a world.

The United States cannot continue to believe itself an ‘exceptional’ nation that it has the right to control the world.  As soon as that decision was made the US government began a war, declared or not, on every other nation in the world and against it’s own citizens.  Because either, given the power, could destroy the government and it’s owners.

That is what we see happening.  The US is drowning in the green blood it continues to print which is backed by absolutely nothing.  It can no longer pay off the INTEREST on it’s debts or negotiate effectively with the BRICS countries – they have more financial clout that the US and it’s allies. And because of the ridiculous wars and coups and ‘regime changes’, not to mention the demonization of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US is no longer trusted by the world at large.  We are seen to be simply making up the rules as we go, and none of them apply to us. 

That only leave one alternative, and that is force.  The US, Russia, China, India and everyone else believes, correctly, that the first side which gains an overwhelming military superiority in nuclear weapons and defense systems will make a surprise first strike against the other.

The odds seem very high to me that the US will strike Russia with nuclear weapons within the next few years or so, even though we lost our chance. Russia was asleep but now it is completely awake and is rearming much faster that we are managing to break even, because it sees the immediate and existential danger it faces.

China is awake as well. The EU is tanking. NATO is still a force, but it’s going to break up, and the US must either win a nuclear war against the BRICS or lose it’s ‘superpower’ status – and the concomitant loss of the petrodollar which will bankrupt us in one day.

Further, there are demonstrations is 170 US cities and many foreign ones over Ferguson. They are demonstrating for the wrong reason in this case, but not in the other thousands of cases of police and prosecutorial overreach. So it doesn’t matter that it’s the wrong reason as long as something happens.  If The Grand Jury doesn’t indict the NYPD officers for murdering Eric Garner, and Grand Juries are typically prosecution pawns which never indict police officers, the civil war will be on.  So they will delay the decision for months if necessary – or try to.

Regardless, US law only applies to certain people and certain countries. The rich and high politicians are completely immune as are corporate executives.  The US officially changed it’s foreign policy.  It now states flatly that US interests anywhere in the world supercede all international law and that the US policy is now to strike first in the face of a (real or imagined threat). That specifically includes a nuclear, chemical or biological first strike, or all three.

Do not be pacified into a state of calm.  The US IS going to war against Syria, Iran and Russia and must get them out of the way in order to ‘pivot’ to a war with China.  It is suicidal, it is an apocalyptic concept, and it is happening.

 

 

De lava, de lava.

The flow isn’t dead but it hasn’t moved for ten days so we’ll see. The pools which feed it from Kilauea are almost stable. But ‘almost stable’ has a very different meaning for volcanoes.  In this recent (1950) example for instance, Mauna Loa erupted from it’s summit and reached the ocean in four hours. Read this. It is thoroughly interesting:

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maunaloa/history/50_06_01/

What is notable to me is that the lava pool in Puʻu ʻŌʻō is holding at a low level but the lava upslope of the front is still inflating and there are a few breakouts along the flow line. In fact, the diameter of the lava tube feeding the flow has increased slightly.  Kilauea is still erupting as it has for over 30 years, sometimes more, sometimes less. 

So the flow doesn’t depend on Puʻu ʻŌʻō as a source but, rather, Kilauea. And while Kilauea and Mauna Loa are separate volcanos, they are certainly inter-connected, or at least fed by the same magma pool, within the greater Hawaii Hot Spot.

I like to play ‘what if’ with the flow, but the contstraints I originally articulated about it remain valid. It is constrained within a couple of narrow cracks which limit it’s volume and speed so long as it remains within that crack system. The two volcanoes remain active however, and will eventually cover the south-east portion of the Big Island as it continues to tear away from Mauna Kea.

We, the residents, CHOOSE to live here.  We understand the danger, or we should. We are gambling a lifetime in paradise against the certainty of an eventual lava flow. The odds are almost 100% in our favor over any given human lifetime, but zero over geologic time. Our odds in Puna are actually better than you might expect:

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maunaloa/hazards/rate.html

However, it is likely that Mauna Loa is entering a new 2,000 year cycle of increased activity which will affect the island over the next ~800 years. Those theories and data are referenced here:

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maunaloa/history/model.html#reference

Whether the flow crosses Highway 130 now or later isn’t really important. When it does, whoever is left will get out of the way.

So much for facts.  Here is the rant:  It’s human nature to be stupid. You have to be trained to think logically and it doesn’t happen much anymore – certainly not in public schools – and certainly not on TV.

But no matter what you have been told to think, you are not going to get a personal miracle and the government can’t do everything; or really, almost ANYTHING.  It is too big to be controlled.  And no matter what size it is, it can’t control volcanoes or re-direct lava flow, and we are talking here about the largest active volcano on earth.

Stop expecting the government to control nature.  It can’t. Do not expect the government or the police to protect you or feed you or give you a job.  They can’t and it’s not their job anyway.  Don’t believe what you see on TV.  There is no requirement anywhere for news to be true and ‘reality’ shows aren’t.

The best you can do is inform yourself, not let other people tell you what is true and what isn’t. Because you everyone in the world has agendas, and you are part of theirs, but they aren’t part of yours. You inform yourself by finding both sides to the story and comparing them logically. After filtering out what can’t possibly be true you are left with whatever remains, whether or not you like it.

Excerpt from the founding document of the United States of America

“We hold these truths to be self-evident,…..Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed……., it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.