What could possibly go wrong in the middle east?

First, let’s realize that ISIS is a US creation, designed to fight Assad as a US proxy because Iraq can’t.  But as soon as we trained the ‘moderate Muslim freedom fighters’ we discovered they weren’t all that moderate and never had been.  Here are the possibilities we have created for ourselves.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175908/

Thursday – No Hurricane for TBI; lava has stopped; my ducks are laying blue eggs.

Eggs

L-R  goose, duck, shellless chicken egg (I don’t know how), chicken, dove

 

 

ANA  – ACCORDING TO THE LAST UPDATE, the windward side of the Big Island will have, on average, a 70% chance of getting a total rainfall accumulation of up to 9″ of rain spread over a six day period.  Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.  I hope we do and I hope I get most of it.  

Ana is weakening.  Her closest pass to the Big Island will be late Friday. She may not develop into a hurricane and will pass 75 or more miles south of the Big Island.  There is only a tiny chance at this hour that Windward Hawaii will notice anything unusual and certainly nothing more severe than the last line of squalls which came over earlier in the week.

I will provide updates as required but there is no hurricane.  

Thursday 5pm

Ana looks like this now: She is starting to disintegrate.

ana

You can watch Ana go by at this link. You will have to refresh it manually.  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/flash-wv.html  

 

UPDATE: 18:30

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
303 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND...

.TROPICAL STORM ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BIG ISLAND...THEN LIKELY SWEEP FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING ON THE BIG ISLAND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIZ023>028-171415-
/O.CON.PHFO.FF.A.0008.141017T2200Z-141020T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
303 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM
HST SUNDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE BIG ISLAND.

* FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH
  LOCALLY UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN...SOUTHERN AND
  WESTERN PORTION OF THE BIG ISLAND.

* IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY
  RESULT IN ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS. REMEMBER
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE RAINING HEAVILY WHERE YOU ARE FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

FOSTER





 

Tropical Storm Watch

TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
600 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

...ANA MAKING TURN TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AND NEARING HAWAII...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST COASTAL
WATERS AND LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR BIG ISLAND LEEWARD
WATERS...BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS...
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND FROM NOON
FRIDAY TO 6PM SUNDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM HST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.6N...LONGITUDE 151.9W...OR ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 610 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU HAWAII. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM ANA FINALLY STARTED THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST
DIRECTION ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. ANA
EXPECTED TO TURN FURTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED FURTHER WESTWARD AND ANA IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BRIEFLY REACHING
HURRICANE INTENSITY FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN START TO WEAKEN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL
SECURED.

PEOPLE UNDER A WATCH SHOULD CONTINUE MAKING PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SMALL CRAFT IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK
SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ023>028-PHZ122-171200-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.A.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
600 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...GARBAGE CANS...HANGING
PLANTS...CHILDRENS TOYS...BARBECUE GRILLS...AND ANY OTHER ITEMS
THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE DEBRIS IN STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE
SECURED OR STORED INDOORS. HAVE SUPPLIES ON HAND AND BE READY FOR
POWER OUTAGES. EVACUATE IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IS 15 PERCENT IN HILO...37 PERCENT AT SOUTH POINT...AND
28 PERCENT IN KAILUA-KONA. THESE VALUES REPRESENT A DOWNWARD TREND
SINCE THE LAST FORECAST AT 1100 AM HST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH...34 KNOTS...OR HIGHER ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM EARLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
MODERATE WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE PUNA AND SOUTH KONA
DISTRICTS. SEAS OF 15 TO 25 FEET ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT DURING
THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF ANA TO THE BIG ISLAND...MAINLY IN WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE KUMUKAHI.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF WILL CONTINUE INCREASE ALONG THE KAU AND SOUTHEAST FACING
COAST OF THE PUNA DISTRICTS. BIG ISLAND CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTS
SURF OF 5 TO 10 FEET IS ALREADY OCCURRING AT ISAAC HALE PARK. THE
SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE BIG ISLAND. SURF
HEIGHTS UP TO 20 FT IN THESE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF ANA TO THE BIG ISLAND. ELEVATED
SURF UP TO 12 FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE KONA COAST ON SATURDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND FROM NOON
FRIDAY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

LAVA

UPDATE – 09:00  Stalled.  Not moving. Game temporarily called by rain. Updated when and if necessary.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 EBOLA

UPDATE 09:30   There are now quarantines everywhere.  Most of them are not ebola; they are panic reactions.  But some cases that ARE ebola are not being handled properly.  This will turn into a circus momentarily. 

HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF:  If EBOLA IS REPORTED, STAY PUT.  It’s not as contageous as smallpox, but you have to be near someone who has it and they might not have a clue because there could be no symptoms for three weeks.

This translation isn’t that great, but here it is anyway:  http://rt.com/op-edge/196472-ebola-spread-dallas-infrastructure-contamination/ 

Dallas…DID NOT…. declare a state of Emergency over Ebola today. The government is not taking this seriously because they have been told it can’t happen here and that the virus isn’t contageous except via direct contact with a SYMPTOMATIC patient’s bodily fluid.  That information is incorrect.