They are all over! Really. NO, REALLY!
First, it’s a million to one… or a billion to one for it to feed lava on the CURRENT flow path in any great quantity. It would run down the hill to Seaview and Kalapana. But let’s say it erupted enough to keep flowing for a couple of years but not enough to go over the side…say it DID continue as it is…
We have to make assumptions based on physical laws. Lava is sort of like water…it flows. And it flows downhill. But those are really the only rules it has to follow. So…click on the map below. The first thing that pops out is that Beaches and Shores would lose the water company and their only access route and electricity. The entire subdivision might have to be abandoned. I didn’t fill in the color, but under certain circumstances, everything inside the purple outline would be affected. If it REALLY erupts….well, it will be past my ‘use by’ date.
The threads of lava moving toward Cemetary Road have almost stopped. The other finger, now the most active one, has left the steepest descent and is falling off to the north – which might put it right back on my originally predicted track. If I overlay a picture and topo in that direction, the path looks like it could, IF IT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE- A BIG ‘IF’, put it right through the back door of Malama Market. That’s almost the worst possible short-term outcome because it would muck up the shopping center and cut the road before Keonepoko and then, probably, cross Keonepoko twice more.
As an aside, all of the people who were complaining about the horrible but occasional emissions from the Geothermal plant may get their wish. If the lava keeps coming the plant could be shut down. They can now contemplate the eventual inevitability of living with SO2 constantly blowing in their faces if – and as long as – the lava flows past 130 as well as certain inconveniences – such as using Chain-of-craters Road to get anywhere, no power for awhile, or cable or much of anything else – including county services and jobs if they work in Hilo or Pahoa. And if it doesn’t come THIS time, it will at some point. Be careful what you wish for.
Here is the latest map. As of now, MY INTERPRETATION of the two most likely crossing points are annotated in yellow. THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL MAP OR PREDICTION! IT IS A DRAMATIZATION PRESENTED FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY! DO NOT DEPEND ON IT FOR ANY REASON! DO NOT CONSIDER IT POTENTIALLY FACTUAL OR SCIENTIFICALLY RELEVANT!
Let’s understand that viruses travel encapsulated in H2O molecules. Viruses are very small and require very few molecules to protect them – if they do not find a host to supply more water, they die. But they do NOT require physical contact as a vector to move between hosts. Ebola is exactly like influenza in this regard.
Malaria isn’t. It is a Plasmodium..a type of protozoan; not a virus. But HIV is a virus, although it has not been observed as transmissible except as an STD, like chlamydia…which is a bacterium. Are you confused yet?
OK. This stuff is all loose in the wild. All of it is at least partially treatable, including the cancer you may contract from breathing radioactive particulate matter carried on the wind or in large ahi from Fukushima. Living on the side of a volcano is a risk factor as well, both from SO2 emissions and from lava (I’m working up to that rant, too).
But the best way to prevent illness from any of these is to avoid contracting them. I get a flu shot every year. It works for me; it might not work for you. I have been vaccinated against almost everything for which there is a vaccine – pneumonia, shingles, hepatitis, polio, smallpox, and a string of things that were loose in Viet-Nam. But the only way to prevent ebola or certain forms of swine/avian flu is not to be exposed to it and the best place to become exposed is….in a hospital.