Lava prediction, Thursday, 10:30 – Updated 19:00

Update: HVO isn’t updating the flow data twice a day anymore, partly because the helicopter only flies once a day now. However there are people on-site, probably being paid serious overtime to watch it. I don’t watch Tv, so I don’t know whether it got any airtime. We’ll see tomorrow morning how much it moved since this morning if it moved at all. Thirty yards or less and it’s going to stop again.
-update ends

The maps and updates from HVO don’t match anymore and the updates are no longer very timely. Unless there is a brush fire, the helicopter only goes periodically – about every second day at the moment.

The speed of advance of the flow decreased by about half over the last 23 hours. It had traveled ~400 feet a day over the past week, but now it’s only traveling about half that speed, or ~8 feet an hour. It might stop by the weekend.

So while I’ll keep projecting based upon what’s actually happening, I still think it’s going to stop or, at most, be a minor inconvenience. My original prediction was that the flow would either follow its original path northwest from the September 6 location, which it didn’t do, or turn south until it stopped or hit a water runoff – which it did.
It has followed that runoff ever since, and HVO has now begun projecting my path which was – and is – based on the steepest descent.

Here is the most recent map: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-147.jpg

Property values in Shores and Beaches are still going to tank because the writing is on the wall. But people living past the geothermal plant are probably going to have some very expensive and exclusive property – especially if they live on a hill. Leilani looks perfectly safe as well. The only problem would be a major eruption which cut the road and even then it’s not a disaster.

I’ll keep you up to date. Or maybe I won’t. I’m getting bored with it.

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