Lava Prediction, 29 September, 21:30

The lava advanced ~75 feet yesterday, but not to the front.  It’s no closer to 130 than it was when it stopped.  The good news is that there is a pretty good picture to go along with the topo.

I am sure some enterprising person beside me has overlaid the picture and the topo.  If the lava starts up again, I’ll issue a new prediction based on the steepness of the terrain.

Lava Prediction, 28 September, 19:30

My hiatus didn’t last very long.  The lava front moved ~75 feet today. That’s statistically unimportant, but it did move.  They didn’t say how wide it was, but at that rate it could reach highway 130 by about…Sunday, January 11, 2015.  However, 75 feet a day is not much faster than three feet an hour and regardless what the idiots say about insulting Pele by diverting the lava, if she didn’t want it diverted it couldn’t be.  In this case it could be and probably would be if it kept coming – but it isn’t. A small flow across the highway would be no big deal anyway.  Remember Queen’s Baths?  It happens.  Mauna Loa is the largest active volcano on earth.

The plain truth is that after the fits and starts, it is almost certain to simply stop again and again until it stops for good, and that will be that until the next time. We live on TWO active volcanos by choice. We don’t have to. I still predict that it will stop unless it’s not really Kilauea but Mauna Loa.

If you want something to worry about – and most people do – think of this small flow as a hint that Mauna Loa is more likely to be a problem. You have heard of rift zones.  Those are tears in the volcanic rock of which the the island is made.  Mauna Loa comprises over half the mass of the Big Island and it’s ripping away.  When it tears itself off and slides into the ocean, there will be a five-thousand foot tsunami heading west and the reverberations will last months or years.

But we won’t care.


My friend who lives within a few miles of me says that he has been shot at several times quite recently.  I don’t know what’s up with that and I take him seriously.  But I don’t believe any of us here have been targeted by cells of terrorists. There is no point. Terrorism is a deliberate act intended to evoke a specific response. No one would even notice around here.

Tribes and communities didn’t get together to invent agriculture.  They got together for mutual defense. They invented agriculture so they could stay in a reasonably close defensive area and feed themselves.  It’s about time for people in this country to realize that YOU have the ultimate AND ONLY responsibility for protecting yourself and your family.  You can call the police but there is no law or even a requirement that they have to respond at all, much less protect you.  The job of the police is to investigate crimes and present the results of their investigation to the prosecutor.

My strategy is posted right on my front gate. People can believe it or not as they choose, but the other guy can only cut off your head if you don’t blow his off first. I’m too old to fight and I’m getting too crippled to stand up by myself if I kneel down. So EVERY threat is a deadly threat. But nothing has ever terrorized me because the best death is a warrior’s death and I can still squeeze off my shots slowly and carefully.  If you want to meet 72 virgins in the next life, write a note beforehand because you won’t even be a good zombie if I get a head shot on you.

So if you don’t have a firearm because your wife won’t let you (“the children could get hurt”), or some equally stupid idea of the world being full of love and peace, you and your family are dead meat for the first deranged shitball who picks you at random to kill because he’s been taking Prozac since he was  two.  And he (or they) will choose you over me.

You do what you want.  But I HIGHLY recommend this video to anyone who wants to talk to a police officer – and I am a retired police officer.  The gist is this:  People aren’t PUT in jail for the most part.  They TALK themselves into jail.  Don’t do that.

Self Explanatory


Lava Prediction, 26 September, 19:30

The current lava map is here:

The lava looks stalled to me.  County Civil Defense isn’t going to do another overflight until Monday, so they don’t see much imminent danger.

My prediction that the lava flow would stop before it impacted Pahoa is correct at this point in time.  Therefore I shall cease reporting until and if the situation changes.

A hui hou.


The Middle East

I will tell you the ultimate result of the US policy of arming people to create regime change and then bombing them when we discover they were never on our side at all.

There are millions of refugees all over the middle east and there will be millions more.  Very soon, marriages and forced survival will change the relationships between traditional tribal enemies. Old barriers will break down, old enemies will begin to realize they aren’t enemies at all, nd that they must unite against a common foe.  When that happens, governments based on tribal affiliations and religious sects will fail.  Iraq had failed.  Libya has failed. Afghanistan hasn’t yet, but the Pashtuns still rule there as they have for centuries. Now the US intends to destroy Syria and then Iran.  We created, financed and armed ISIS as rebels against Assad but, of course, they jumped ship and are trying to create a caliphate.  That may not work – but it is an excellent model for breaking the arbitrary borders imposed by the west after WWI and may eventually result in a unified middle east.

At that point an entirely new middle east will rise.  It will first affiliate and then begin to rival the BRICS countries, the EU and the ‘west’ as a world power.  The US is creating this unity because it has no idea what it is doing and can never see past the next election.  We react to ISIS cutting off a few heads which is a public relations stunt designed to make the US do something stupid.  It worked. The US is now allied with Arab countries against their tribal enemies and everyone there understands this for exactly what it is: A great way to tap into the unlimited US ATM machine and, as an unexpected bonus, to get the US to disarm it’s own citizens because of ‘terrorists’.  If you were afraid of terrorists, why would you disarm the only people who can stop an actual terrorist attack?  Because the police pull up a block away from the mall in their new mine-resistant military personnel carriers and set up a perimeter.  If you are inside with some active shooters, good luck.

Terrorism only works if we let ourselves be terrorized.  The very first time some shooters walk into a mall in Texas, yell “Allahu Akbar” and start shooting, everyone in the mall will turn around and blow them to hell. That will be the end of terrorism in Texas.  California, of course, is screwed.