Prognostications for 2012. Irrelevant comments in blue.

Salt lamps are really bad gifts in areas of high humidity.  I'm not sure they are that great anywhere else, either. “Himalayan' salt lamps?  Are you kidding me?  There are no salt lamps in the Himalayas.

There will be a war or two fought over oil, but the coming attraction is global warfare over water and, eventually, food.  War is only a good idea if the antagonists can kill enough of each other to remove their ability to conduct war.  In the case of the US, we have just done to ourselves what we did to the USSR – destroy our economy.  That can is still kicking down the road but it will hit the ditch pretty soon and we will discover that we don't really need all that energy after all.  The earth tells us when to go to sleep and when to get up and we travel because we can – not because we have to.

Expert Mongol archers could hit a human-sized target consecutively and consistently from a distance of 400 yards from standing and 200 yards from horseback, shooting to any direction including their rear.  One assumes, therefore, that other cultures which used (or still use) bows could reasonably achieve the same skill levels.

The world financial situation.  This isn't really complicated because the laws of mathematics cannot be broken.  All of the social laws can be, and are, and will continue to be – but the math doesn't lie.  Here are the facts:

1)  There is more sovereign debt in the world than there is money in existence.  Therefore it will not be paid.  More money can be printed and circulated, but it isn't based on anything tangible.  It's 'play' money.  At some point, someone will want their goods, and they don't exist.

2) Precious metals are not a hedge against anything because nothing is denominated or based on them anymore.  So an ounce of gold will still be an ounce of gold, but instead of being 'worth' $2,000, it could as easily be 'worth' $20. 

3) Housing is the same way.  In 1970 I bought a nice house in a nice neighborhood for HALF of what it could cost today for a Chevy pickup truck.  When 40 years of leveraging comes out of home prices, my $280,000 house will be worth $28,000.  No one is going to keep paying for a mortgage worth ten times what their home is worth so the banks will either have to mark all this paper to market or go out of business. At the same time, food and fuel costs are going to skyrocket.

4) The government tells us the jobs market is getting better.  Is it?  No. So the government is lying to it's citizens, which is not an act in their best interests.  OUR government is acting in someone else's best interest and that can have no conclusion except another civil war.

5) People who argue that Obama is leading this country to ruin probably ought to grasp that he isn't leading it anywhere.  He isn't a leader so he can't lead.  Once you understand that, you can move on to finding a leader which won't happen in 2012.  We are doomed to another four years of having no one at the helm and we will run out of luck before 2016.  That's not the bad part.  The bad part is that when WE run out of luck, the entire world will run out of luck – and who do you think they will blame?

6) Just about the only things I have that weren't made in China or Japan or Viet-Nam or Mexico are a few firearms – and that's only because there are trade restrictions preventing me from buying Russian and Chinese firearms.  The US is borrowing a billion or so dollars every day from China to finance Chinese goods and Chinese jobs and our ongoing war on Americans in the name of protecting us from terrorism by strip-searching children at airports.  That'll work.  Even better than prohibition.

7) I thought this merry-go-round was going to stop in November, but it's still kinda spinning.  When it stops, it does, and probably only a few hundred thousand people are actually ready to jump in the Wayback Machine and start over again in 1875.  But there is the cost of diminishing returns.  I'm finally ready, but now I am losing my knees and my lower back.  So having everything I need isn't worth a damn if I can't use it.  Ain't that a bitch. 

90% of success is showing up.  Getting the math right is the other 50%.

Aut viam inveniam aut  faciamaut viam inveniam aut faciam.

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